MACRO / USD REGIME

The U.S. dollar, measured.

One evidence-led view of domestic value, external strength, money growth, reserve role and how much Bitcoin a fixed $100 can buy. Nothing is collapsed into an opaque score.

$100 purchasing power · 10Y

$100$71.88

Compare currencies View EUR

RESEARCH PERIOD

10YChange once to update every chart and reading.

Showing 10Y

Reading ruleRead each axis independently: domestic purchasing power can fall while the currency remains firm in FX markets and important in global reserves.

$100 at start$100.0010Y

Domestic purchasing power now$71.88same starting basket

Cumulative inflation: +39.1%
Annualized inflation: +3.4%
Latest rolling inflation: +3.7%
Purchasing-power drawdown: -28.1%

DOMESTIC VALUE

Purchasing power

3.7% inflation over the latest twelve-month observation window.

REGIMEDeteriorating

$100 at selected start = 100Available

$100 purchasing power

Normalized only where explicitly labeled

Purchasing power of $100Deteriorating

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Series: CPIAUCSL
Classification: official
Frequency: monthly
Latest observation: Sep 1, 2026
Status: Available

Method: Purchasing power is the inverse of the all-items consumer price index, rebased to 100 at the selected start.

Limit: CPI is a representative consumption basket; household experience varies.

EXTERNAL VALUE

External strength

Neutral on the broad effective rate; bilateral pairs remain separately inspectable.

REGIMENeutral

Broad effective exchange-rate indexAvailable

Effective FX index

Normalized only where explicitly labeled

Nominal broad USD indexNeutral

Source: Federal Reserve Board H.10
Series: DTWEXBGS
Classification: official
Frequency: daily
Latest observation: Oct 9, 2026
Status: Available

Method: The primary signal is the broad trade-weighted nominal effective exchange-rate index.

Limit: Effective rates measure external value, not domestic purchasing power or reserve importance.

USD vs EURNeutral

Source: Federal Reserve Board H.10
Series: Derived
Classification: official
Frequency: daily
Latest observation: Oct 9, 2026
Status: Available

Method: Bilateral USD strength is expressed as units of EUR purchasable with one USD.

Limit: A bilateral rate can diverge from the trade-weighted effective exchange rate.

USD vs CHFWeak

Source: Federal Reserve Board H.10
Series: Derived
Classification: official
Frequency: daily
Latest observation: Oct 9, 2026
Status: Available

Method: Bilateral USD strength is expressed as units of CHF purchasable with one USD.

Limit: A bilateral rate can diverge from the trade-weighted effective exchange rate.

USD vs JPYStrong

Source: Federal Reserve Board H.10
Series: Derived
Classification: official
Frequency: daily
Latest observation: Oct 9, 2026
Status: Available

Method: Bilateral USD strength is expressed as units of JPY purchasable with one USD.

Limit: A bilateral rate can diverge from the trade-weighted effective exchange rate.

USD vs GBPNeutral

Source: Federal Reserve Board H.10
Series: Derived
Classification: official
Frequency: daily
Latest observation: Oct 9, 2026
Status: Available

Method: Bilateral USD strength is expressed as units of GBP purchasable with one USD.

Limit: A bilateral rate can diverge from the trade-weighted effective exchange rate.

MONEY SUPPLY

Monetary expansion

Moderate M2 growth; no causal claim is attached.

REGIMEModerate

Selected start = 100Awaiting update

Normalized only where explicitly labeled

M2 money stockModerate

Source: Federal Reserve Board
Series: M2SL
Classification: official
Frequency: monthly
Latest observation: Aug 1, 2026
Status: Awaiting update

Method: M2 growth is measured independently using year-over-year change and multi-year CAGR.

Limit: Money-stock growth is not, by itself, evidence of FX weakness or a causal Bitcoin signal.

Monetary baseContracting

Source: Federal Reserve Board
Series: BOGMBASE
Classification: official
Frequency: monthly
Latest observation: Aug 1, 2026
Status: Awaiting update

Method: The monetary base is shown as supporting context and is not merged into M2.

Limit: Reserve balances and currency in circulation differ conceptually from broad money.

GLOBAL ROLE

Reserve status

Dominant / Slowly Declining; current share 56.7% versus a 72.1% observed-history peak. Quarter-to-quarter moves include valuation effects.

REGIMEDominant / Slowly Declining

Share of official FX reserves · %Awaiting update

USD

Normalized only where explicitly labeled

Share of global FX reservesDominant / Slowly Declining

Source: IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves
Series: COFER
Classification: official
Frequency: quarterly
Latest observation: Apr 1, 2026
Status: Awaiting update

Method: Share of world official foreign-currency reserves reported in IMF COFER.

Limit: COFER is quarterly, aggregate and subject to revision. Reported share changes combine allocation decisions with exchange-rate and asset-price valuation effects.

BITCOIN LENS

Bitcoin purchasable with $100

How much Bitcoin $100 can buy over the selected period, shown as context rather than a composite signal.

REGIMEWeak

Bitcoin purchasable with $100 · selected start = 100Available

BTC purchasable with 100 fiat units

Normalized only where explicitly labeled

Bitcoin purchasable with $100Weak

Source: Coinbase BTC-USD market data
Series: BTC-USD
Classification: institutional
Frequency: daily
Latest observation: Oct 18, 2026
Status: Available

Method: Units of Bitcoin purchasable with $100, normalized to 100 at the selected start.

Limit: Bitcoin begins only with reliable stored BTC-USD observations; no pre-existence history is backfilled.

Methodology, freshness and known limitations

Engine rules

No composite currency score is calculated. Each dimension remains visible and independently sourced.
Changes use the last observation on or before each horizon. Percentiles compare the latest observation with the full ingested history.
Selected-range charts include the nearest prior observation when available so the rebase has an auditable anchor.
Missing or delayed data never defaults to neutral; it is surfaced as Not ingested, Awaiting update, Stale or Unavailable.

Data audit

Purchasing power of $100AvailableSep 1, 2026 · official

Nominal broad USD indexAvailableOct 9, 2026 · official

USD vs EURAvailableOct 9, 2026 · official

USD vs CHFAvailableOct 9, 2026 · official

USD vs JPYAvailableOct 9, 2026 · official

USD vs GBPAvailableOct 9, 2026 · official

M2 money stockAwaiting updateAug 1, 2026 · official

Monetary baseAwaiting updateAug 1, 2026 · official

Share of global FX reservesAwaiting updateApr 1, 2026 · official

Bitcoin purchasable with $100AvailableOct 18, 2026 · institutional