₿BTC REGIMEBY UNLIME
COINBASE · BTC-USD
DERIVATIVES & LIQUIDITY EVENTS

Quarterly expiry,
tested—not narrated.

Track the futures roll separately from the U.S. expiry session, then measure BTC outcomes without assigning a bullish or bearish prior.

RESEARCH POSITIONContext, not a signal

Observed reactions describe association. They do not establish that expiry caused the move.

DERIVATIVESSCHEDULED
NEXT QUARTERLY DERIVATIVES EXPIRY

18 Sept 2026

Also commonly called triple witching / quad witching.

Roll window
Starts 14 Sept 2026
Days remaining
16
Historical BTC +7D median
+0.12%
Positive rate
52.3%
MEDIUM confidence · N = 44Regular expiry session
CURRENT INTERPRETATION

Quarterly expiry approaches

U.S. index futures will enter their quarterly roll period ahead of expiry. Historical BTC outcomes are presented as a distribution and liquidity context—not a directional call.

  1. ScheduledCalendar resolved
  2. Roll window14 Sept 2026
  3. Expiry session18 Sept 2026
  4. CompletedReactions accrue
BTC HISTORICAL REACTION

What happened after comparable expiries?

Every figure carries its own N. The calendar is complete even when a BTC outcome is not.

Study period
2013–202644 of 56 events have usable BTC +7D data79% coverage
BTC +1D-0.12%47.7% positiveN = 44
BTC +5D+0.03%50.0% positiveN = 44
BTC +7D+0.12%52.3% positiveN = 44
BTC +14D-0.28%47.7% positiveN = 44
BTC +30D+2.26%61.4% positiveN = 44
NORMALIZED TO 100 AT T0

Historical BTC path around expiry

N = 44
Historical normalized Bitcoin price path around quarterly expiryMedian path with a 25th to 75th percentile band from ten days before through ten days after expiry. Focus the plot and use the left and right arrow keys to inspect each day.92100107T-10T-5T0T+5T+10
Hover, touch, or focus the chart to inspect each day.Median historical path · shaded area is the 25th–75th percentile range.
EVENT ARCHIVE

One sample per quarterly expiry

Showing 25–36 of 56 resolved events

MEDIUM confidence · N = 44
ExpiryRollAdjustedBTC +1DBTC +5DBTC +14DData coverage
14 Dec 2020No+4.48%+1.76%+28.85%7/6 BTC windows
14 Sept 2020No+1.25%-6.47%-3.39%7/6 BTC windows
15 Jun 2020No-0.22%-0.96%-3.33%7/6 BTC windows
16 Mar 2020No+0.20%+8.16%+8.98%7/6 BTC windows
16 Dec 2019No-0.09%+0.60%+2.59%7/6 BTC windows
16 Sept 2019No-2.93%-17.88%-20.62%7/6 BTC windows
17 Jun 2019No+11.92%+35.63%+15.46%7/6 BTC windows
11 Mar 2019No+3.53%+4.62%+6.15%7/6 BTC windows
17 Dec 2018No-2.33%-6.51%-6.25%7/6 BTC windows
17 Sept 2018No+3.30%-0.58%+1.55%7/6 BTC windows
11 Jun 2018No-2.32%+1.82%-6.57%7/6 BTC windows
12 Mar 2018No-4.87%+7.65%-17.09%7/6 BTC windows
METHODOLOGY

Calendar fact first. Market narrative second.

Quarterly derivatives expiry is a recurring market-structure event. It can concentrate rolling and hedging flows, but it does not imply a predefined bullish or bearish Bitcoin outcome.

BTC boundary: Last completed Coinbase BTC-USD 00:00 UTC daily close before the 16:00 New York event boundary.

Read the research policy