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COINBASE · BTC-USD
RESEARCH LIBRARY · 14 STUDIES

Bitcoin market conditions.
Measured outcomes.

Explore what happened after comparable Bitcoin market events. Every result includes its raw and non-overlapping sample sizes, distribution, temporal out-of-sample check, and methodology.

PUBLISHED EVIDENCE

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Find a topic, inspect its sample quality, then open the full evidence or compare it.

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Showing 14 of 14 studies
How to read evidence quality

Independent sampleCounts chronologically non-overlapping events and drives the confidence label.

Median return and win rateDescribe historical outcomes at the displayed horizon; they are not forecasts.

Temporal checkTests whether the return direction remains stable in later observations.

COMPARE STUDIESChoose 2–4 studies

Use + Compare on any card. Results are aligned using independent outcomes.

Momentum studyOpen study

Daily RSI ≥ 75

Forward performance after Bitcoin enters a high-momentum daily RSI regime.

90D MEDIAN RETURN+28.6%
WIN RATE83.3%
EVIDENCE QUALITY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE18 events
45 raw eventsTemporal: ConsistentModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Confirmed weekly higher low

Performance after a weekly pivot low confirms above the previous confirmed pivot low.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+27.0%
WIN RATE64.3%
EVIDENCE QUALITY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE14 events
31 raw eventsTemporal: ConsistentModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Confirmed weekly lower high

Performance after a weekly pivot high confirms below the previous confirmed pivot high.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+1.8%
WIN RATE54.5%
EVIDENCE QUALITY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE11 events
26 raw eventsTemporal: UnstableModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Weekly bullish breakout

Performance after a completed weekly close clears the latest confirmed pivot high by 1%.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+44.9%
WIN RATE72.7%
EVIDENCE QUALITY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE11 events
19 raw eventsTemporal: ConsistentModel 1.1.0
Momentum studyOpen study

Weekly RSI cross 50

How Bitcoin performed after weekly momentum crossed into positive territory.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+22.1%
WIN RATE54.5%
EVIDENCE QUALITY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE11 events
16 raw eventsTemporal: UnstableModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Weekly bearish breakdown

Performance after a completed weekly close loses the latest confirmed pivot low by 1%.

26W MEDIAN RETURN-21.5%
WIN RATE42.9%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE7 events
13 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Mean reversion studyOpen study

Bottom-zone stabilization

Forward outcomes after a deep drawdown first regains completed daily trend and momentum confirmation.

180D MEDIAN RETURN-33.3%
WIN RATE40%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE5 events
6 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Mean reversion studyOpen study

Drawdown ≥ 30%

Forward returns from the first daily close 30% below the trailing all-time high.

180D MEDIAN RETURN+47.8%
WIN RATE60%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE5 events
7 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Weekly bearish divergence

Performance after price makes a higher high while weekly RSI forms a lower high.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+36.6%
WIN RATE60%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE5 events
7 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Successful bullish retest

Performance after Bitcoin revisits a confirmed breakout level and closes back above it.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+31.7%
WIN RATE75%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE4 events
6 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Successful bearish retest

Performance after Bitcoin revisits a confirmed breakdown level and closes back below it.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+36.2%
WIN RATE66.7%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE3 events
4 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Structure studyOpen study

Weekly bullish divergence

Performance after price makes a lower low while weekly RSI forms a higher low.

26W MEDIAN RETURN+40.9%
WIN RATE100%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE2 events
2 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Macro studyOpen study

50M EMA loss

Forward returns after a monthly close moves below the long-term trend reference.

365D MEDIAN RETURN+52.4%
WIN RATE100%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE1 events
1 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0
Macro studyOpen study

50M EMA reclaim

Forward returns after a monthly close moves back above the long-term trend reference.

365D MEDIAN RETURN+144.5%
WIN RATE100%
EVIDENCE QUALITY VERY LOW
INDEPENDENT SAMPLE1 events
1 raw eventsTemporal: Not enough dataModel 1.1.0

Research, not a recommendation. Live market data can be delayed or temporarily unavailable. Historical results are displayed only when they have been computed and stored by the database research pipeline.