Protocol certainty.
Market uncertainty.
The subsidy change is deterministic. The price response is not. Track the current block cycle, then inspect every historical observation—including the drawdowns hidden by headline returns.
Bitcoin halvings occur every 210,000 blocks. The target block is deterministic; the calendar date uses the protocol’s 10-minute block target and will move.
New issuance halves.
Approx. 450 → 225 BTC/day, assuming 144 blocks per day. Actual block production varies.
Compare the same age, not a promised path.
Every prior cycle is sampled at the current cycle’s calendar age. The comparison is descriptive and never converted into a price target.
since the fourth subsidy halving
through the latest completed daily close
at the same age · at most N=3
One starting line. Four different markets.
Each path begins at 100 on the first daily close after its halving block. The 2024 line ends now; nothing is extrapolated.
The endpoint is only part of the experience.
Switch horizons to see every raw observation, the path’s adverse and favorable excursion, and its running-close drawdown.
Median · positive 75%
N = 4 · structurally limitedMedian · positive 75%
N = 4 · structurally limitedMedian · positive 100%
N = 4 · structurally limitedMedian · positive 100%
N = 4 · structurally limited| Halving | Anchor close | Endpoint | Return | MAE | MFE | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $122012-11-29 | 2013-11-29 | +8189.5% | -1.0% | +8493.9% | -71.0% |
| 2016 | $6582016-07-10 | 2017-07-10 | +281.5% | -100.0% | +356.2% | -29.6% |
| 2020 | $8,5722020-05-12 | 2021-05-12 | +562.0% | -0.4% | +657.1% | -25.2% |
| 2024 | $64,9692024-04-21 | 2025-04-21 | +31.1% | -24.5% | +68.3% | -28.2% |
Raw observations are shown because the population is too small for aggregate statistics to stand alone. A missing endpoint is left blank, never projected.
Large expansions, diminishing multiples.
Cycle highs are ex-post descriptive metrics. The current period is labeled high so far and can still change.
| Cycle | Halving close | Cycle high | Multiple | Days to high | Largest pullback before high | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $12 | $1,132 | 92.64× | 371 | -71.0% | COMPLETED CYCLE HIGH |
| 2016 | $658 | $19,650 | 29.88× | 525 | -36.3% | COMPLETED CYCLE HIGH |
| 2020 | $8,572 | $73,135 | 8.53× | 1402 | -76.7% | COMPLETED CYCLE HIGH |
| 2024 | $64,969 | $124,720 | 1.92× | 534 | -28.2% | HIGH SO FAR |
Four completed protocol events.
Block height, timestamp, and subsidy transitions come from the Bitcoin blockchain. Price outcomes use the versioned daily-close convention.
| Halving | Block / exact UTC time | Subsidy | BTC close | +90D | +365D | +730D | Cycle high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012EARLY MARKET STRUCTURE | 210,00028 Nov 2012, 15:24:38 | 50 → 25BTC / block | $12 | +154.5% | +8189.5% | +2984.0% | 92.64×371 days |
| 2016 | 420,0009 Jul 2016, 16:46:13 | 25 → 12.5BTC / block | $658 | -6.0% | +281.5% | +913.4% | 29.88×525 days |
| 2020 | 630,00011 May 2020, 19:23:43 | 12.5 → 6.25BTC / block | $8,572 | +36.4% | +562.0% | +238.0% | 8.53×1402 days |
| 2024 | 840,00020 Apr 2024, 00:09:27 | 6.25 → 3.125BTC / block | $64,969 | +2.7% | +31.1% | +16.8% | 1.92×534 days |
N = 4 halvings is not a predictive distribution.
Earlier cycles differed materially in liquidity, exchange quality, derivatives depth, institutional access, and macro conditions. The 2024 event is also the first U.S. spot-ETF-era halving.
The next target is fixed at block 1,050,000.
The date moves with observed block production.
Bitstamp early history, then Coinbase.
Changes to sources or anchors require a new version.
Read calculation rules and current data warnings
- The exact block timestamp is mapped to the first canonical daily close after the event.
- Bitstamp BTC/USD supplies the early period unavailable on Coinbase; Coinbase BTC-USD is preferred from 20 July 2015 onward.
- Endpoint returns and cycle highs use daily closes. MAE/MFE use daily lows and highs; drawdown uses running daily closes.
- The normalized chart samples every seventh daily close plus the event and latest endpoints; all study calculations retain daily data.
- Current-cycle outcomes stop at the latest completed candle. Missing future horizons remain null.
- Four protocol events are not enough to infer causality or a repeatable return distribution.
- Protocol certainty: the subsidy changes at the target block. Market response is not determined by that event.
- N = 4 completed halvings. Cross-cycle results are descriptive and structurally limited, not forecasts.