Bitcoin’s supply clock.
The subsidy change is deterministic. The price response is not. Track the current block cycle, then inspect every historical observation—including the drawdowns hidden by headline returns.
- 201225 BTCper block
- 201612.5 BTCper block
- 20206.25 BTCper block
- 20243.125 BTCper block
- Next halving1.5625 BTCat block 1,050,000
Bitcoin halvings occur every 210,000 blocks. The target block is deterministic; the calendar date uses the protocol’s 10-minute block target and will move.
New issuance halves.
Approx. 450 → 225 BTC/day, assuming 144 blocks per day. Actual block production varies.
Compare the same age, not a promised path.
Every prior cycle is sampled at the current cycle’s calendar age. The comparison is descriptive and never converted into a price target.
since the fourth subsidy halving
through the latest completed daily close
at the same age · at most N=3
One starting line. Four different markets.
Each path begins at 100 on the first daily close after its halving block. The 2024 line ends now; nothing is extrapolated.
The endpoint is only part of the experience.
Switch horizons to see every observation, the path’s adverse and favorable excursion, and its running-close drawdown. Reviewed corrections are explicitly marked.
Median · positive 75%
N = 4 · structurally limitedMedian · positive 75%
N = 4 · structurally limitedMedian · positive 100%
N = 4 · structurally limitedIncludes a corrected-low observationMedian · positive 100%
N = 4 · structurally limitedIncludes a corrected-low observation| Halving | Anchor close | Endpoint | Return | MAE | MFE | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $122012-11-29 | 2013-11-29 | +8189.5% | -1.0% | +8493.9% | -71.0% |
| 2016Low corrected · BITSTAMP BTC/USD | $6582016-07-10 | 2017-07-10 | +281.5% | -26.6% | +356.2% | -29.6% |
| 2020 | $8,5722020-05-12 | 2021-05-12 | +562.0% | -0.4% | +657.1% | -25.2% |
| 2024 | $64,9692024-04-21 | 2025-04-21 | +31.1% | -24.5% | +68.3% | -28.2% |
Individual observations are shown because the population is too small for aggregate statistics to stand alone. A missing endpoint is left blank, never projected.
This horizon and its aggregates include 1 observation with an explicitly corrected low. Follow the corrected observation’s link for source data and original values.
Large expansions, diminishing multiples.
Cycle highs are ex-post descriptive metrics. The current period is labeled high so far and can still change.
| Cycle | Halving close | Cycle high | Multiple | Days to high | Largest pullback before high | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $12 | $1,132 | 92.64× | 371 | -71.0% | COMPLETED CYCLE HIGH |
| 2016 | $658 | $19,650 | 29.88× | 525 | -36.3% | COMPLETED CYCLE HIGH |
| 2020 | $8,572 | $73,135 | 8.53× | 1402 | -76.7% | COMPLETED CYCLE HIGH |
| 2024 | $64,969 | $124,720 | 1.92× | 534 | -28.2% | HIGH SO FAR |
Four completed protocol events.
Block height, timestamp, and subsidy transitions come from the Bitcoin blockchain. Price outcomes use the versioned daily-close convention.
| Halving | Block / exact UTC time | Subsidy | BTC close | +90D | +365D | +730D | Cycle high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012EARLY MARKET STRUCTURE | 210,00028 Nov 2012, 15:24:38 | 50 → 25BTC / block | $12 | +154.5% | +8189.5% | +2984.0% | 92.64×371 days |
| 2016Includes corrected-low windows | 420,0009 Jul 2016, 16:46:13 | 25 → 12.5BTC / block | $658 | -6.0% | +281.5% | +913.4% | 29.88×525 days |
| 2020 | 630,00011 May 2020, 19:23:43 | 12.5 → 6.25BTC / block | $8,572 | +36.4% | +562.0% | +238.0% | 8.53×1402 days |
| 2024 | 840,00020 Apr 2024, 00:09:27 | 6.25 → 3.125BTC / block | $64,969 | +2.7% | +31.1% | +16.8% | 1.92×534 days |
N = 4 halvings is not a predictive distribution.
Earlier cycles differed materially in liquidity, exchange quality, derivatives depth, institutional access, and macro conditions. The 2024 event is also the first U.S. spot-ETF-era halving.
The next target is fixed at block 1,050,000.
The date moves with observed block production.
Bitstamp early history, then Coinbase.
Changes to sources or anchors require a new version.
Read calculation rules and current data warnings
- The exact block timestamp is mapped to the first canonical daily close after the event.
- Bitstamp BTC/USD supplies the early period unavailable on Coinbase; Coinbase BTC-USD is preferred from 20 July 2015 onward.
- Endpoint returns and cycle highs use daily closes. MAE/MFE use daily lows and highs; drawdown uses running daily closes.
- Reviewed low corrections are applied only in the halving research layer. Coinbase intraday reconstruction is preferred; when unreliable, an explicitly marked cross-exchange replacement may be used. Raw candles are preserved, and affected observations and aggregates include correction provenance.
- The normalized chart samples every seventh daily close plus the event and latest endpoints; all study calculations retain daily data.
- Current-cycle outcomes stop at the latest completed candle. Missing future horizons remain null.
- Four protocol events are not enough to infer causality or a repeatable return distribution.
- Protocol certainty: the subsidy changes at the target block. Market response is not determined by that event.
- N = 4 completed halvings. Cross-cycle results are descriptive and structurally limited, not forecasts.