Quarterly expiry research
DERIVATIVES · QUARTERLY EXPIRY
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry
Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal.
STATUSCOMPLETED
ROLL WINDOWDec 15, 2025
EXPIRY SESSIONDec 19, 2025
HOLIDAY ADJUSTEDNo
BTC DATA7/7 windows complete
DIRECTIONAL PRIORNone
OBSERVED BTC PATH · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Bitcoin reaction after expiry
| Horizon | Return | Worst excursion | Best excursion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | +3.35% | +2.71% | +3.59% |
| 3D | +3.62% | +2.39% | +5.95% |
| 5D | +2.51% | +1.04% | +5.95% |
| 7D | +2.15% | +1.04% | +5.95% |
| 14D | +5.26% | +1.04% | +6.41% |
| 30D | +9.56% | +1.04% | +14.63% |
| 90D | -18.19% | -29.79% | +14.63% |
Base price is the last Coinbase BTC-USD daily close completed before the event. These outcomes do not prove the event caused the move.