₿BTC REGIMEBY UNLIME
COINBASE · BTC-USD
MACRO LIQUIDITY / CENTRAL BANKS

Measure the backdrop.
Test the narrative.

Official monetary data, normalized into comparable inputs for Bitcoin research. The module separates balance-sheet expansion, Treasury cash flows, reverse repo, and long yields instead of calling every liquidity event “money printing.”

Inspect the Fed Read the proxy limits
MACRO REGIMERestrictive26.081% score coverage
U.S. Net Liquidity FRESH
$5.77T
-2.38% · 30D weekly
Federal Reserve total assets FRESH
$6.73T
-0.24% · 30D weekly
10-year Treasury yield FRESH
4.75%
0 bps · 30D daily
Treasury General Account FRESH
$959.4B
+14.85% · 30D weekly
CURRENT READ · RESTRICTIVE

The current macro backdrop is restrictive

MEDIUM confidence

Net liquidity is contracting and contributes 0.0 points. The 26.0 score is normalized across available inputs only.

Net liquidityNet liquidity is contracting and contributes 0.0 points.
Treasury General AccountTreasury General Account is rebuild and contributes 0.0 points.
Fed balance sheetFed balance sheet is stable and contributes 7.6 points.
Reverse repoReverse repo is near zero low weight and contributes 1.0 points.
Reliability and limitations
  • 81% of configured score weight is available.
  • This is a contextual composite, not a Bitcoin forecast or causal model.
WHY THIS SCORE

Restrictive forces outweigh offsets

81% coverage · 6 of 7 inputs
Main drags

Net liquidity is contracting and contributes 0.0 points.

Treasury General Account is rebuild and contributes 0.0 points.

Fed balance sheet is stable and contributes 7.6 points.

Main offsets

Reverse repo is near zero low weight and contributes 1.0 points.

Long yields is stable and contributes 7.5 points.

Policy direction is hold and contributes 5.0 points.

CURRENT BACKDROP

Restrictive

26.0 / 100
LiquidityContracting
Long-term yieldsStable
Fed balance sheetStable
Treasury cash impulseRebuild
Reverse repoNear Zero Low Weight

Context, not a forecast. Supportive conditions do not imply deterministic BTC upside.

PROVISIONAL WEIGHTS

Score breakdown

Available inputs are normalized to 100
Fed balance sheetStable
7.6 / 20.0
Net liquidityContracting
0.0 / 25.0
Treasury General AccountRebuild
0.0 / 10.0
Reverse repoNear Zero Low Weight
1.0 / 1.0
Long yieldsStable
7.5 / 15.0
DollarV2 Not Ingested
Policy directionHold
5.0 / 10.0
How is this score calculated?
ComponentRaw valueDirectionWeightNormalizedContribution
Fed balance sheet-0.24%RESTRICTIVE20%37.8 / 1007.6
Net liquidity-2.38%RESTRICTIVE25%0.0 / 1000.0
Treasury General Account+14.85%RESTRICTIVE10%0.0 / 1000.0
Reverse repo-66.29%SUPPORTIVE10%100.0 / 1001.0
Long yields0 bpsNEUTRAL15%50.0 / 1007.5
DollarUnavailableUNAVAILABLE10%UnavailableUnavailable
Policy direction0 bpsNEUTRAL10%50.0 / 1005.0

Missing inputs are excluded from both the numerator and available-weight denominator; they never silently count as zero.

NORMALIZED USD · WEEKLY

U.S. net-liquidity proxy

$5.77T
20232026
156 stored observations$5.77T
RAW INPUTS

See what moved beneath the headline

A rising headline proxy can come from different mechanisms. Each source remains separately visible.

Overnight reverse repo FRESH
$725.0M
-66.29% · 30D daily
Reserve balances FRESH
$2.92T
-4.48% · 30D weekly
2-year Treasury yield FRESH
4.34%
+6 bps · 30D daily
30-year Treasury yield FRESH
5.25%
-2 bps · 30D daily
Effective federal funds rate FRESH
3.63%
0 bps · 30D daily
Secured Overnight Financing Rate FRESH
3.66%
0 bps · 30D daily
MECHANISM CHECK

“Money printing” is not one thing

QE

Central-bank assets and reserve balances rise through direct balance-sheet expansion.

QT

The central-bank balance sheet contracts as assets mature or are sold.

TGA drawdown

Treasury spends cash held at the Fed, which can add liquidity to the banking system.

RRP decline

Cash leaves the reverse-repo facility, which can release liquidity elsewhere.

Treasury buyback

Treasury purchases outstanding debt; this can affect market liquidity and duration supply, but it is not QE.

FormulaFederal Reserve total assets - Treasury General Account - overnight reverse repo
Interpretation limit

This is a directional liquidity proxy. It is not a literal measure of money available to buy Bitcoin and does not establish causation.

Revision policy

The latest stored revision is shown. Historical research does not yet use real-time vintages, so revised source data can affect backtests.