U.S. Net Liquidity Fresh
$5.87TMACRO / LIQUIDITY MONITOR
The monetary backdrop.
Follow liquidity, yields and policy through official source data. Inspect the drivers before drawing a conclusion about Bitcoin.
Macro conditions
ProvisionalNeutral
Heuristic score43.1 / 100
Supportive and restrictive forces are broadly balanced.
Not a probability of Bitcoin returns.
CURRENT READ · NEUTRAL
MEDIUM confidenceThe current macro backdrop is neutral
Reverse repo: Near Zero Low Weight; contributes 1.0 points. The 43.1 score is normalized across available inputs only.
Treasury General Account: Rebuilding; contributes 2.5 points.
Long yields: Stable; contributes 4.5 points.
Net liquidity: Flat; contributes 9.7 points.
Reverse repo: Near Zero Low Weight; contributes 1.0 points.
Reliability and limitations
- 81% of configured score weight is available.
- This is a contextual composite, not a Bitcoin forecast or causal model.
Federal Reserve total assets Fresh
$6.76T10-year Treasury yield Awaiting next release
5.10%Treasury General Account Fresh
$885.8BNORMALIZED USD · WEEKLY
$5.87TU.S. net-liquidity proxy
CURRENT BACKDROP
43.1 / 100Neutral
LiquidityFlat
Long-term yieldsStable
Fed balance sheetStable
Treasury cash impulseRebuilding
Reverse repoNear Zero Low Weight
Context, not a forecast. Supportive conditions do not imply deterministic BTC upside.
How the macro score is constructed
WHY THIS SCORE
81% coverage · 6 of 7 inputsDrivers are broadly balanced
Main drags
Treasury General Account: Rebuilding; contributes 2.5 points.
Long yields: Stable; contributes 4.5 points.
Net liquidity: Flat; contributes 9.7 points.
Main offsets
Reverse repo: Near Zero Low Weight; contributes 1.0 points.
Fed balance sheet: Stable; contributes 12.2 points.
Policy direction: Hold; contributes 5.0 points.
PROVISIONAL WEIGHTS
Available inputs are normalized to 100Score breakdown
Fed balance sheetStable
12.2 / 20.0
Net liquidityFlat
9.7 / 25.0
Treasury General AccountRebuilding
2.5 / 10.0
Reverse repoNear Zero Low Weight
Nominal weight: 10%
Effective weight: 1%
Nominal weight: 10%
Effective weight: 1%
1.0 / 1.0
Long yieldsStable
4.5 / 15.0
DollarV2 Not Ingested
Policy directionHold
5.0 / 10.0
How is this score calculated?
| Component | Raw value | Direction | Nominal weight | Effective weight | Normalized | Contribution (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +0.22% | SUPPORTIVE | 20% | 20% | 61.1 / 100 | 12.2 |
| Net liquidity | -0.46% | RESTRICTIVE | 25% | 25% | 38.6 / 100 | 9.7 |
| Treasury General Account | +4.99% | RESTRICTIVE | 10% | 10% | 25.0 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Reverse repo | -98.14% | SUPPORTIVE | 10% | 1% | 100.0 / 100 | 1.0 |
| Long yields | +10 bps | RESTRICTIVE | 15% | 15% | 30.0 / 100 | 4.5 |
| Dollar | Unavailable | UNAVAILABLE | 10% | Excluded | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Policy direction | 0 bps | NEUTRAL | 10% | 10% | 50.0 / 100 | 5.0 |
Contribution = normalized value ÷ 100 × effective weight. Score = sum of contributions ÷ sum of available effective weights × 100. Current calculation: 34.9 ÷ 81.0 × 100 ≈ 43.1 / 100. Displayed inputs are rounded.
Reverse repo has less remaining liquidity to release when its balance is low. Its effective weight is 10% × clamp(current RRP balance ÷ $500 billion, 0.1, 1): a 1% floor and 10% ceiling. Weights are points out of the configured 100, before normalization over available inputs.
Missing inputs are excluded from both the numerator and available-weight denominator; they never silently count as zero.
RAW INPUTS
See what moved beneath the headline
A rising headline proxy can come from different mechanisms. Each source remains separately visible.
Overnight reverse repo Awaiting next release
$100.0MReserve balances Fresh
$3.02T2-year Treasury yield Awaiting next release
4.77%30-year Treasury yield Awaiting next release
5.43%Effective federal funds rate Awaiting next release
3.88%Secured Overnight Financing Rate Awaiting next release
3.89%MECHANISM CHECK
“Money printing” is not one thing
QE
Central-bank assets and reserve balances rise through direct balance-sheet expansion.
QT
The central-bank balance sheet contracts as assets mature or are sold.
TGA drawdown
Treasury spends cash held at the Fed, which can add liquidity to the banking system.
RRP decline
Cash leaves the reverse-repo facility, which can release liquidity elsewhere.
Treasury buyback
Treasury purchases outstanding debt; this can affect market liquidity and duration supply, but it is not QE.
FormulaFederal Reserve total assets - Treasury General Account - overnight reverse repo
Interpretation limit
This is a directional liquidity proxy. It is not a literal measure of money available to buy Bitcoin and does not establish causation.
Revision policy
The latest stored revision is shown. Historical research does not yet use real-time vintages, so revised source data can affect backtests.