FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +1.80%
- BTC +7D
- +5.11%
EVENT RESEARCHMacro events,
Macro events,
before and after.
Official policy, Treasury, and derivatives-liquidity events are timestamped, linked to primary sources, and matched with completed BTC-USD daily candles.
RESEARCH BOUNDARYAssociation, not causation
Returns overlap with every other market force. Market surprise is unavailable where no expectations source is stored.
COMPLETE EVENT ARCHIVE
Page 1Completed / Researchable events
Past event dates, newest first. A past date does not confirm execution; observed outcomes and reaction completeness remain explicit.
Archive as of Oct 19, 2026 · dates use the stored announcement / event research anchor; execution and settlement are separate.
| Event date (UTC) | Authority | Event | Status | Observed outcome | BTC 1D | BTC 7D | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 20Y | SETTLED | Accepted $6.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -1.17% | Awaiting completed candle | PartialSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 20Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $6.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -4.50% | -4.65% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 2Y to 3Y | SETTLED | Accepted $1.3BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -1.12% | -5.51% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 20Y | SETTLED | Accepted $6.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +1.45% | -0.43% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 1Y to 10Y | SETTLED | Accepted $605.0MConfirmed resultInspect record → | -0.98% | +1.52% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 20Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $4.1BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -2.10% | -3.06% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | +6.40% | +10.14% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 7Y to 10Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.4BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +1.01% | +11.63% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $500.0MConfirmed resultInspect record → | -1.58% | +12.75% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 20Y | SETTLED | Accepted $5.2BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -2.44% | -2.93% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 1Mo to 2Y | SETTLED | Accepted $12.5BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -1.02% | -4.44% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 1Mo to 2Y | SETTLED | Accepted $12.5BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +4.99% | +1.14% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 5Y to 7Y | SETTLED | Accepted $1.2BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +1.03% | +1.07% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 3Y to 5Y | SETTLED | Accepted $1.9BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +12.88% | +22.18% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 20Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +2.94% | +25.69% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 20Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -0.78% | +1.20% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 1Mo to 2Y | SETTLED | Accepted $4.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +0.45% | -1.82% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 3.5% to 3.75% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | +1.37% | +1.18% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 20Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +0.32% | +0.56% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 20Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -3.03% | -2.07% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 1Y to 10Y | SETTLED | Accepted $405.0MConfirmed resultInspect record → | -2.20% | -3.94% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 20Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -1.27% | +0.52% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury BuybackTreasury buyback result — 2Y to 3Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.3BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +3.04% | +2.46% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 10Y to 20Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | +5.06% | +6.35% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Treasury Buyback Long DurationTreasury buyback result — 20Y to 30Y | SETTLED | Accepted $2.0BConfirmed resultInspect record → | -1.61% | +0.82% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH |
Explore catalysts and comparable-event studies
CURRENT READ · MIXED
MEDIUM confidence4 recent catalysts have completed 1D and 7D Bitcoin reactions
The archive separates operational status from market-reaction availability. The broadest featured study has N = 45 independent events.
FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%: BTC was +5.11% seven days after the event.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%: BTC was +3.26% seven days after the event.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%: BTC was +5.30% seven days after the event.
Reliability and limitations
- Returns overlap with other market forces and do not establish causation.
- Market surprise is unavailable where an expectations source is not stored.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +0.32%
- BTC +7D
- +3.26%
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +3.74%
- BTC +7D
- +5.30%
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- -2.39%
- BTC +7D
- -3.15%
CONDITIONAL STUDIES
What happened after comparable events?
Featured figures use chronological non-overlapping samples. Low sample counts stay visibly low confidence.
Bitcoin after Fed rate cuts
Official FOMC statements classified as a lower target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
30D MEDIAN-2.63%0.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Fed rate holds
Official FOMC statements with an unchanged target-range midpoint.
30D MEDIAN+7.81%69.6% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Fed rate hikes
Official FOMC statements classified as a higher target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
30D MEDIAN-4.09%30.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Treasury buyback announcements
Official Treasury buyback schedule announcements across all maturity buckets, using each preserved announcement research anchor.
30D MEDIAN+2.60%50.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after long-duration Treasury buyback announcements
Official Treasury buyback announcements in buckets spanning ten years or longer.
30D MEDIAN+5.43%100.0% positive
Read the study →Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry — BTC Forward Returns
One observation per resolved quarterly U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry session; roll and expiry dates remain distinct.
30D MEDIAN+2.74%61.4% positive
Read the study →Daily data limitation
1-hour and 4-hour reactions are not displayed because the research store currently contains canonical completed daily candles. Adding finer horizons requires a separately audited intraday dataset.