Bitcoin market regime
Trend, structure and momentum, evaluated on completed candles.
Bullish
Opportunity conditions: Supportive. Price structure: Intact. Volatility: Normal.
Inspect the price evidenceOpportunity score
Heuristic score · Not a probability
Score drivers
Points / max- Trend
- 40 / 40
- Strong alignment
- Momentum
- 5 / 25
- Weak alignment
- Mean reversion
- 15 / 25
- Partial alignment
- Confirmation
- 6 / 10
- Partial alignment
Indicator diagnostics, pullback and regime path
Shallow
Price is 4–10% below its completed 90-day high while macro structure holds.
Live price versus completed 90-day, weekly-structure, and monthly-macro reference levels. The label is descriptive, not a trade instruction.
Retest
The cycle previously stabilized, but the latest completed close has moved back below its 20-day EMA.
Completed-candle market geometry, not a declaration that a final low is in and not a trade instruction.
Current state: Bullish
The final regime combines supportive opportunity conditions, intact price structure, and normal volatility. Seven-day score momentum is stable.
Understand how market conditions changed
Explore what the model saw on past dates. Start with one question.
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What followed each score band?
Point-in-time outcomes from stored snapshots. One global chronological sample removes overlapping windows before score bands are compared.
Inspect score bands and observed outcomes
| Score band | Raw / independent N | Median return | Win rate | Regime upgrade | Unchanged | Downgrade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive0–40 | 373 / 12 | +7.9% | 75% | 33.3% | 50% | 16.7% |
| Mixed41–55 | 774 / 28 | +1.1% | 57.1% | 50% | 39.3% | 10.7% |
| Constructive56–70 | 1193 / 38 | -1.7% | 42.1% | 15.8% | 50% | 34.2% |
| Bullish71–85 | 207 / 7Too small | +13.9% | 57.1% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 57.1% |
| Strong Trend86–100 | 0 / 0Too small | — | — | — | — | — |
0% of adjacent eligible bands had a non-decreasing median return. This audit does not optimize score weights and does not treat the score as a probability.
Research, not a recommendation. Live market data can be delayed or temporarily unavailable. Historical results are displayed only when they have been computed and stored by the database research pipeline.