CURRENT MARKET

Bitcoin market regime and indicators

A live BTC-USD view of trend, RSI momentum, market structure, drawdown, value, and completed-candle confirmation.

BTC PRICE · REST$76,965-1.2% 24H
MARKET REGIMEEarly Bullish LIVE MODEL
OPPORTUNITY SCORE56 / 100COMPUTED FROM CLOSED CANDLES
MODEL CONFIDENCE82% HIGH
BTC / USD · CONNECTING
$76,965-1.18%
Loading historical candlesReading the 1W · 5Y series from stored history or Coinbase…
OPPORTUNITY SCORE
56/ 100
CONSTRUCTIVE56–70 · Improving alignment

The model combines macro trend, momentum, value, and confirmation using completed market candles.

Trend30 / 40
Conditions strongly aligned
Momentum10 / 25
Weak confirmation
Mean reversion10 / 25
Weak confirmation
Confirmation6 / 10
Partial confirmation
MODEL CONFIDENCE82%
DAILY RSI · 1465.5
Positive daily momentum
WEEKLY STRUCTURELH / LL
CONFIRMED
Detected from confirmed weekly swing pivots
50-MONTH EMA$66,299+16.1% ABOVEPrice above · slope rising
WEEKLY RSI · 1456.5
RISING
Positive weekly momentum regime
PULLBACK CLASSIFICATION

Shallow

Price is 4–10% below its completed 90-day high while macro structure holds.

90D completed high$81,480
Current drawdown-5.5%
20D EMA distance$74,346 · +3.5%
Confirmed pivot support$57,718 · +33.3%
50M EMA distance$66,299 · +16.1%
Noise
Shallow
Healthy
Deep
Structure Warning
Trend Failure

Live price versus completed 90-day, weekly-structure, and monthly-macro reference levels. The label is descriptive, not a trade instruction.

BOTTOM-ZONE CLASSIFICATION

Early Recovery

The stabilization event is recorded and price remains above its completed 20-day EMA.

ATH drawdown-37.9%
Running ATH$124,720
Cycle started21 Nov 2025
20D EMA$74,346
EMA slope · 5D+3.2%
Daily RSI · 1465.5
30% cycle drawdown 20D EMA reclaimed EMA rising over 5D Daily RSI at least 45
Outside Deep Drawdown Capitulation Stabilizing Early Recovery Retest

Completed-candle market geometry, not a declaration that a final low is in and not a trade instruction.

REGIME PATH

Current state: Early Bullish

The state machine combines weekly structure, monthly momentum, macro averages, and the current score.

1BEARISH
2CAUTION
3ACCUMULATION
4REPAIR
5EARLY BULLISH
6BULLISH
7STRONG TREND
HISTORICAL REGIME TIMELINE

How the model changed over time

Daily point-in-time classifications computed only from information available on each date.

Loading stored regime snapshots…
OPPORTUNITY SCORE CALIBRATION

What followed each score band?

Point-in-time outcomes from stored snapshots. One global chronological sample removes overlapping windows before score bands are compared.

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Checking data freshnessReading pipeline timestamps…

Research, not a recommendation. Live market data can be delayed or temporarily unavailable. Historical results are displayed only when they have been computed and stored by the database research pipeline.