Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after Fed rate cuts
Official FOMC statements classified as a lower target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
Events3
Independent sample3
ConfidenceVERY_LOW
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 3 | -4.17% | -3.01% | 33.3% | -6.22% to -0.38% | -5.27% | -1.32% |
| 3D | 3 | -2.12% | -3.72% | 0.0% | -5.26% to -1.39% | -5.27% | -1.32% |
| 5D | 3 | -2.54% | -4.36% | 33.3% | -6.63% to -1.19% | -9.98% | -0.10% |
| 7D | 3 | -6.40% | -6.02% | 0.0% | -6.73% to -5.50% | -10.07% | -0.10% |
| 14D | 3 | -8.62% | -7.69% | 0.0% | -9.85% to -6.00% | -12.04% | -0.10% |
| 30D | 3 | -2.63% | -7.10% | 0.0% | -9.70% to -2.27% | -16.12% | -0.09% |
| 90D | 1 | -22.08% | -22.08% | 0.0% | -22.08% to -22.08% | -27.87% | +3.03% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
Open JSON data