Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after Fed rate hikes
Official FOMC statements classified as a higher target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
Events10
Independent sample10
ConfidenceLOW
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 10 | +0.56% | +1.50% | 60.0% | -1.01% to +2.48% | -1.35% | +2.93% |
| 3D | 10 | +0.60% | +1.09% | 70.0% | -1.85% to +3.22% | -1.60% | +4.47% |
| 5D | 10 | -0.78% | -2.03% | 50.0% | -3.69% to +1.53% | -2.47% | +4.47% |
| 7D | 10 | -0.46% | -3.56% | 40.0% | -4.92% to +2.26% | -4.35% | +4.89% |
| 14D | 10 | +0.52% | -0.86% | 50.0% | -6.32% to +6.40% | -6.79% | +5.16% |
| 30D | 10 | -4.09% | -4.84% | 30.0% | -9.40% to +0.32% | -8.03% | +8.91% |
| 90D | 5 | +3.53% | -1.75% | 60.0% | -5.53% to +12.94% | -15.39% | +18.59% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
Open JSON data