Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after Fed rate holds
Official FOMC statements with an unchanged target-range midpoint.
Events23
Independent sample23
ConfidenceMEDIUM
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 23 | +0.32% | +0.63% | 56.5% | -1.68% to +1.62% | -1.74% | +1.72% |
| 3D | 23 | +1.39% | +0.50% | 60.9% | -2.33% to +4.13% | -3.43% | +3.87% |
| 5D | 23 | +1.16% | +0.09% | 56.5% | -1.84% to +3.99% | -4.53% | +4.74% |
| 7D | 23 | +1.97% | +1.38% | 69.6% | -1.31% to +4.78% | -4.90% | +6.27% |
| 14D | 23 | +4.61% | +6.53% | 65.2% | -2.30% to +14.35% | -5.11% | +8.21% |
| 30D | 23 | +7.81% | +6.93% | 69.6% | -9.38% to +14.91% | -6.13% | +15.66% |
| 90D | 11 | +11.70% | +18.95% | 72.7% | +4.40% to +47.02% | -8.02% | +22.88% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
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