Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after long-duration Treasury buyback announcements
Tentative Treasury buybacks in buckets spanning ten years or longer.
Events1
Independent sample1
ConfidenceVERY_LOW
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1 | +2.94% | +2.94% | 100.0% | +2.94% to +2.94% | +1.82% | +3.47% |
| 3D | 1 | +16.19% | +16.19% | 100.0% | +16.19% to +16.19% | +1.82% | +16.80% |
| 5D | 1 | +22.63% | +22.63% | 100.0% | +22.63% to +22.63% | +1.82% | +26.52% |
| 7D | 1 | +25.69% | +25.69% | 100.0% | +25.69% to +25.69% | +1.82% | +27.31% |
| 14D | 1 | +25.03% | +25.03% | 100.0% | +25.03% to +25.03% | +1.82% | +29.67% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
Open JSON data