Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after long-duration Treasury buyback announcements
Official Treasury buyback announcements in buckets spanning ten years or longer.
Events13
Independent sample13
ConfidenceLOW
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 13 | -1.27% | -0.67% | 30.8% | -2.10% to +0.32% | -2.56% | +0.14% |
| 3D | 13 | -1.36% | +0.73% | 23.1% | -2.07% to -0.05% | -3.08% | +0.79% |
| 5D | 12 | -0.33% | +2.14% | 41.7% | -3.23% to +3.53% | -2.79% | +2.20% |
| 7D | 8 | -1.25% | -1.33% | 37.5% | -2.97% to +0.59% | -4.41% | +1.76% |
| 14D | 5 | +3.59% | +6.13% | 80.0% | +0.01% to +7.56% | -4.28% | +6.03% |
| 30D | 3 | +5.43% | +12.23% | 100.0% | +5.33% to +15.73% | -4.54% | +11.41% |
| 90D | 1 | +38.36% | +38.36% | 100.0% | +38.36% to +38.36% | -5.35% | +43.31% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
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