Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after Treasury buyback announcements
Official tentative Treasury buyback schedule announcements across all maturity buckets.
Events4
Independent sample3
ConfidenceVERY_LOW
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 3 | +2.94% | +5.61% | 100.0% | +1.98% to +7.91% | +1.82% | +4.55% |
| 3D | 2 | +9.73% | +9.73% | 100.0% | +6.50% to +12.96% | +0.83% | +10.67% |
| 5D | 2 | +11.64% | +11.64% | 100.0% | +6.14% to +17.13% | +0.34% | +15.67% |
| 7D | 2 | +13.38% | +13.38% | 100.0% | +7.23% to +19.54% | +0.34% | +16.07% |
| 14D | 1 | +25.03% | +25.03% | 100.0% | +25.03% to +25.03% | +1.82% | +29.67% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
Open JSON data