Macro event researchMACRO EVENT STUDY
Bitcoin after Treasury buyback announcements
Official Treasury buyback schedule announcements across all maturity buckets, using each preserved announcement research anchor.
Events25
Independent sample25
ConfidenceMEDIUM
BTC-USD · COMPLETED DAILY CANDLES
Forward-return distribution
| Horizon | N | Median | Mean | Win rate | 25th–75th | MAE | MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D | 25 | -1.02% | +0.08% | 40.0% | -2.10% to +1.03% | -1.73% | +0.79% |
| 3D | 18 | -0.98% | +0.35% | 38.9% | -2.30% to +1.93% | -2.37% | +1.12% |
| 5D | 17 | -0.31% | +1.26% | 47.1% | -3.18% to +2.78% | -2.33% | +2.61% |
| 7D | 15 | -0.43% | +1.61% | 46.7% | -3.00% to +1.80% | -2.83% | +3.41% |
| 14D | 7 | +1.75% | +2.75% | 71.4% | -1.69% to +9.78% | -3.50% | +5.86% |
| 30D | 4 | +2.60% | +5.65% | 50.0% | -2.91% to +11.16% | -1.71% | +9.52% |
| 90D | 1 | +17.95% | +17.95% | 100.0% | +17.95% to +17.95% | -12.91% | +24.15% |
METHODOLOGY
How to read this result
Returns use completed Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles. The base is the last close completed before the event timestamp. Each horizon uses a chronological non-overlapping sample; fees, slippage, intraday reactions, and causal claims are excluded.
Research integrity
These observations describe association after selected events. They are not a causal estimate, trading recommendation, or promise of a similar future outcome.
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