FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +1.80%
- BTC +7D
- +5.11%
EVENT RESEARCHMacro events,
Macro events,
before and after.
Official policy, Treasury, and derivatives-liquidity events are timestamped, linked to primary sources, and matched with completed BTC-USD daily candles.
RESEARCH BOUNDARYAssociation, not causation
Returns overlap with every other market force. Market surprise is unavailable where no expectations source is stored.
COMPLETE EVENT ARCHIVE
Page 3Completed / Researchable events
Past event dates, newest first. A past date does not confirm execution; observed outcomes and reaction completeness remain explicit.
Archive as of Oct 19, 2026 · dates use the stored announcement / event research anchor; execution and settlement are separate.
| Event date (UTC) | Authority | Event | Status | Observed outcome | BTC 1D | BTC 7D | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | +3.74% | +5.30% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | +0.85% | +2.84% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | -2.39% | -3.15% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | +0.14% | +0.17% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 25 bpsInspect record → | -0.03% | -0.21% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | +3.66% | +20.09% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 5% to 5.25% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | -1.39% | +15.68% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 5% to 5.25% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 25 bpsInspect record → | +0.60% | -3.70% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 4.75% to 5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 25 bpsInspect record → | +0.52% | +0.54% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | +7.70% | +9.73% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 4.5% to 4.75% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 25 bpsInspect record → | +1.58% | -0.71% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | -3.32% | -3.35% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 4.25% to 4.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 50 bpsInspect record → | -2.34% | -5.33% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 3.75% to 4% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 75 bpsInspect record → | -1.33% | -22.40% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 3% to 3.25% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 75 bpsInspect record → | +2.78% | +2.83% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | +2.08% | -2.12% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 2.25% to 2.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 150 bpsInspect record → | +12.18% | +7.35% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | -6.99% | +4.18% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 0.75% to 1% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 50 bpsInspect record → | -3.13% | -23.19% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | +3.13% | +8.26% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HikeFOMC rate hike — 0.25% to 0.5% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hike · 25 bpsInspect record → | +4.20% | +9.16% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 0% to 0.25% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | +0.56% | -0.15% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryQuarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | Quarterly Derivatives ExpiryInspect record → | -1.63% | +6.75% | CompletedSource confidence · VERY LOW | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 0% to 0.25% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | -1.52% | +0.50% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH | ||
Fed Rate HoldFOMC rate hold — 0% to 0.25% | COMPLETED | Fed Rate Hold · 0 bpsInspect record → | -2.88% | +2.60% | CompletedSource confidence · HIGH |
Explore catalysts and comparable-event studies
CURRENT READ · MIXED
MEDIUM confidence4 recent catalysts have completed 1D and 7D Bitcoin reactions
The archive separates operational status from market-reaction availability. The broadest featured study has N = 45 independent events.
FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%: BTC was +5.11% seven days after the event.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%: BTC was +3.26% seven days after the event.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%: BTC was +5.30% seven days after the event.
Reliability and limitations
- Returns overlap with other market forces and do not establish causation.
- Market surprise is unavailable where an expectations source is not stored.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +0.32%
- BTC +7D
- +3.26%
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +3.74%
- BTC +7D
- +5.30%
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- -2.39%
- BTC +7D
- -3.15%
CONDITIONAL STUDIES
What happened after comparable events?
Featured figures use chronological non-overlapping samples. Low sample counts stay visibly low confidence.
Bitcoin after Fed rate cuts
Official FOMC statements classified as a lower target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
30D MEDIAN-2.63%0.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Fed rate holds
Official FOMC statements with an unchanged target-range midpoint.
30D MEDIAN+7.81%69.6% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Fed rate hikes
Official FOMC statements classified as a higher target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
30D MEDIAN-4.09%30.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Treasury buyback announcements
Official Treasury buyback schedule announcements across all maturity buckets, using each preserved announcement research anchor.
30D MEDIAN+2.60%50.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after long-duration Treasury buyback announcements
Official Treasury buyback announcements in buckets spanning ten years or longer.
30D MEDIAN+5.43%100.0% positive
Read the study →Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry — BTC Forward Returns
One observation per resolved quarterly U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry session; roll and expiry dates remain distinct.
30D MEDIAN+2.74%61.4% positive
Read the study →Daily data limitation
1-hour and 4-hour reactions are not displayed because the research store currently contains canonical completed daily candles. Adding finer horizons requires a separately audited intraday dataset.