LIQUIDITY RELATIONSHIPS

Move beyond
matching two lines.

Compare normalized paths, then test changes against BTC returns across explicit windows and lags. The default is useful, visible, and fully reversible.

PEARSON CORRELATION-0.50Moderate Negative

Window: 90D
BTC lag: +30D
Observations: N = 13
Through: Jul 29, 2026

ReliabilityLOW confidence

Calculation contextPearson correlation between consecutive macro observations expressed as percentage changes and BTC returns over the same observation intervals, with BTC endpoints shifted 30 days after the macro dates. BTC is shifted forward by 30 days.

CURRENT READ · MIXED

U.S. Net Liquidity has a negative (-0.50) measured relationship with lagged Bitcoin returns

LOW confidence

The selected estimate uses N = 13 aligned observations. Cross-window stability is stable.

Selected relationshipPearson correlation is -0.50.

Stability checkThe sign across tested windows is stable.

Reliability and limitations

Correlation is descriptive and does not establish prediction or causation.
Macro history uses latest revisions rather than point-in-time vintages.

NORMALIZED PATHS · THREE YEARS

U.S. Net Liquidity vs Bitcoin

Visual comparison is context,
not the correlation calculation.

U.S. Net Liquidity · rebased levelBTC-USD +30D

Both series rebased to 100 at the first visible macro observation.152 aligned points

LAG PROFILE · 90D WINDOW

Does the relationship persist?

+0Dthrough Aug 26

-0.27

+7Dthrough Aug 26

0.27

+14Dthrough Aug 19

0.29

+30Dthrough Jul 29

-0.50

+60Dthrough Jul 1

-0.06

+90Dthrough Jun 3

-0.18

BEST OBSERVED LAG+30D · -0.50

No stable lead/lag relationship detected: the sign reverses across tested lags.

RELATIONSHIP STABILITY

Does the sign persist?

STABLE

30D windowN/AN = 5

90D window-0.50N = 13

180D window-0.22N = 26

365D window-0.18N = 53

The sign persists and dispersion is limited across windows.

TECHNICAL + MACRO

Test the combined setup

The condition is fixed before viewing its return distribution and retains very-low confidence when the sample is small.

VERY LOW confidence · N = 22 matched · 2 independent

Bitcoin after weekly RSI recovery with supportive macro

Weekly BTC RSI crossed above 50 while revised U.S. net liquidity had risen over 30 days and the 10-year Treasury yield had fallen over 30 days.

30D MEDIAN+17.66%100.0% positive

Read the study →