EVENT RESEARCH

Policy events,
measured after the fact.

Official policy, Treasury, and derivatives-liquidity events are timestamped, linked to primary sources, and matched with completed BTC-USD daily candles.

RESEARCH BOUNDARYAssociation, not causation

Returns overlap with every other market force. Market surprise is unavailable where no expectations source is stored.

DERIVATIVES & LIQUIDITY EVENTSQuarterly U.S. derivatives expirySeparate the futures roll from expiry and inspect BTC distributions →

RECENT MACRO CATALYSTS

The events worth inspecting first

Ranked by official significance, reaction completeness, and observed magnitude—not by Bitcoin return alone.

CURRENT READ · MIXED

4 recent catalysts have completed 1D and 7D Bitcoin reactions

MEDIUM confidence

The archive separates operational status from market-reaction availability. The broadest featured study has N = 44 independent events.

FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%BTC was +5.11% seven days after the event.

FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%BTC was +3.26% seven days after the event.

FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%BTC was +5.30% seven days after the event.

Reliability and limitations

Returns overlap with other market forces and do not establish causation.
Market surprise is unavailable where an expectations source is not stored.

FED · HIGH IMPACTMar 19, 2025

FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%

Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.

BTC +1D: +1.80%
BTC +7D: +5.11%

FED · HIGH IMPACTJan 31, 2024

FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%

Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.

BTC +1D: +0.32%
BTC +7D: +3.26%

FED · HIGH IMPACTDec 13, 2023

FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%

Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.

BTC +1D: +3.74%
BTC +7D: +5.30%

FED · HIGH IMPACTSep 20, 2023

FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%

Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.

BTC +1D: -2.39%
BTC +7D: -3.15%

CONDITIONAL STUDIES

What happened after comparable events?

Featured figures use chronological non-overlapping samples. Low sample counts stay visibly low confidence.

VERY LOW confidence · N = 33 matched · 3 independent

Bitcoin after Fed rate cuts

Official FOMC statements classified as a lower target-range midpoint than the previous statement.

30D MEDIAN-2.63%0.0% positive

Read the study →

MEDIUM confidence · N = 2323 matched · 23 independent

Bitcoin after Fed rate holds

Official FOMC statements with an unchanged target-range midpoint.

30D MEDIAN+7.81%69.6% positive

Read the study →

LOW confidence · N = 1010 matched · 10 independent

Bitcoin after Fed rate hikes

Official FOMC statements classified as a higher target-range midpoint than the previous statement.

30D MEDIAN-4.09%30.0% positive

Read the study →

VERY LOW confidence · N = 34 matched · 3 independent

Bitcoin after Treasury buyback announcements

Official tentative Treasury buyback schedule announcements across all maturity buckets.

30D MEDIANAwaiting dataNo completed 30D sample

Read the study →

VERY LOW confidence · N = 11 matched · 1 independent

Bitcoin after long-duration Treasury buyback announcements

Tentative Treasury buybacks in buckets spanning ten years or longer.

30D MEDIANAwaiting dataNo completed 30D sample

Read the study →

MEDIUM confidence · N = 4454 matched · 44 independent

Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry — BTC Forward Returns

One observation per resolved quarterly U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry session; roll and expiry dates remain distinct.

30D MEDIAN+2.26%61.4% positive

Read the study →

COMPLETE EVENT ARCHIVE

Official event log

Page 5

Date	Authority	Event	Status	BTC 1D	BTC 7D	Confidence
Jun 16, 2017	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	+9.33%	+11.65%	VERY LOW confidence
Mar 17, 2017	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	-17.45%	-20.44%	VERY LOW confidence
Dec 16, 2016	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	+1.60%	+18.18%	VERY LOW confidence
Sep 16, 2016	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	+0.41%	-0.41%	VERY LOW confidence
Jun 17, 2016	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	-1.40%	-12.96%	VERY LOW confidence
Mar 18, 2016	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	-1.96%	-0.48%	VERY LOW confidence
Dec 18, 2015	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	+1.27%	+0.07%	VERY LOW confidence
Sep 18, 2015	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	COMPLETED	-0.20%	+1.09%	VERY LOW confidence
Jun 19, 2015	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Mar 20, 2015	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Dec 19, 2014	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Sep 19, 2014	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Jun 20, 2014	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Mar 21, 2014	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Dec 20, 2013	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Sep 20, 2013	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Jun 21, 2013	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence
Mar 15, 2013	CME	Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry Recurring U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry, also commonly called triple witching or quad witching. It is positioning context, not a directional Bitcoin signal. Type Quarterly Derivatives Expiry Amount Unavailable Execution Not available Settlement Not available Open full record →	AWAITING REACTION DATA	Awaiting data	Awaiting data	VERY LOW confidence

Daily data limitation

1-hour and 4-hour reactions are not displayed because the research store currently contains canonical completed daily candles. Adding finer horizons requires a separately audited intraday dataset.