FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +1.80%
- BTC +7D
- +5.11%
EVENT RESEARCHPolicy events,
Policy events,
measured after the fact.
Official policy, Treasury, and derivatives-liquidity events are timestamped, linked to primary sources, and matched with completed BTC-USD daily candles.
RESEARCH BOUNDARYAssociation, not causation
Returns overlap with every other market force. Market surprise is unavailable where no expectations source is stored.
RECENT MACRO CATALYSTS
The events worth inspecting first
Ranked by official significance, reaction completeness, and observed magnitude—not by Bitcoin return alone.
CURRENT READ · MIXED
MEDIUM confidence4 recent catalysts have completed 1D and 7D Bitcoin reactions
The archive separates operational status from market-reaction availability. The broadest featured study has N = 44 independent events.
FOMC rate hold — 4.25% to 4.5%BTC was +5.11% seven days after the event.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%BTC was +3.26% seven days after the event.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%BTC was +5.30% seven days after the event.
Reliability and limitations
- Returns overlap with other market forces and do not establish causation.
- Market surprise is unavailable where an expectations source is not stored.
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +0.32%
- BTC +7D
- +3.26%
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- +3.74%
- BTC +7D
- +5.30%
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5%
Rate decisions can change discount rates and financial conditions; the realized effect depends on market expectations.
- BTC +1D
- -2.39%
- BTC +7D
- -3.15%
CONDITIONAL STUDIES
What happened after comparable events?
Featured figures use chronological non-overlapping samples. Low sample counts stay visibly low confidence.
Bitcoin after Fed rate cuts
Official FOMC statements classified as a lower target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
30D MEDIAN-2.63%0.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Fed rate holds
Official FOMC statements with an unchanged target-range midpoint.
30D MEDIAN+7.81%69.6% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Fed rate hikes
Official FOMC statements classified as a higher target-range midpoint than the previous statement.
30D MEDIAN-4.09%30.0% positive
Read the study →Bitcoin after Treasury buyback announcements
Official tentative Treasury buyback schedule announcements across all maturity buckets.
30D MEDIANAwaiting dataNo completed 30D sample
Read the study →Bitcoin after long-duration Treasury buyback announcements
Tentative Treasury buybacks in buckets spanning ten years or longer.
30D MEDIANAwaiting dataNo completed 30D sample
Read the study →Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry — BTC Forward Returns
One observation per resolved quarterly U.S. equity-index derivatives expiry session; roll and expiry dates remain distinct.
30D MEDIAN+2.26%61.4% positive
Read the study →COMPLETE EVENT ARCHIVE
Page 3Official event log
| Date | Authority | Event | Status | BTC 1D | BTC 7D | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | +0.32% | +3.26% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | -1.84% | +2.29% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | +3.74% | +5.30% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | +0.85% | +2.84% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hold — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | -2.39% | -3.15% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | +0.14% | +0.17% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 5.25% to 5.5% | COMPLETED | -0.03% | -0.21% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | +3.66% | +20.09% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hold — 5% to 5.25% | COMPLETED | -1.39% | +15.68% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 5% to 5.25% | COMPLETED | +0.60% | -3.70% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 4.75% to 5% | COMPLETED | +0.52% | +0.54% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | +7.70% | +9.73% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 4.5% to 4.75% | COMPLETED | +1.58% | -0.71% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | -3.32% | -3.35% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 4.25% to 4.5% | COMPLETED | -2.34% | -5.33% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 3.75% to 4% | COMPLETED | -1.33% | -22.40% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 3% to 3.25% | COMPLETED | +2.78% | +2.83% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | +2.08% | -2.12% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 2.25% to 2.5% | COMPLETED | +12.18% | +7.35% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | -6.99% | +4.18% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 0.75% to 1% | COMPLETED | -3.13% | -23.19% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | +3.13% | +8.26% | VERY LOW confidence | ||
FOMC rate hike — 0.25% to 0.5% | COMPLETED | +4.20% | +9.16% | HIGH confidence | ||
FOMC rate hold — 0% to 0.25% | COMPLETED | +0.56% | -0.15% | HIGH confidence | ||
Quarterly US Derivatives Expiry | COMPLETED | -1.63% | +6.75% | VERY LOW confidence |
Daily data limitation
1-hour and 4-hour reactions are not displayed because the research store currently contains canonical completed daily candles. Adding finer horizons requires a separately audited intraday dataset.